Agent-based model of the growth of an informal settlement in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: An empirically informed concept

The paper discusses the use of empirical evidence to derive the concept for a spatially explicit agent-based model that simulates land-use change in an informal settlement in the city of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Dar es Salaam’s informal settlements are home to 70 – 80 % of the city’s residents and are characterized by high housing densities, unstructured road infrastructure and inadequate water, electricity, and sewerage services. However, they differ from typical Sub-Saharan informal settlements in two main ways: First they consist of residents with varying socioeconomic backgrounds, specifically income, education, and type of employment. Second, plots of land are not squatted on. The main purpose of the research is to develop the concept for an agent-based model for informal settlement growth derived from empirical findings. The model concentrates on the economic aspects of the spatial growth, but also includes other socioeconomic and biophysical elements. Empirical evidence on household behaviour was acquired via a questionnaire survey in which data on personal details, plot and house details, location preferences, and the housing development process was obtained.